Last Friday Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu launched a savage attack on Iran, killing many top military leaders and nuclear scientists and damaging one of Israel’s nuclear enrichment sites. The war has continued with Israel and Iran exchanging missile strikes that have damaged both countries and killed many people. While important questions remain unanswered about the role of the US/President Trump in “green lighting” and supporting Israel’s attack, by Tuesday morning it was clear that the US had aligned itself with Israel, ending efforts (real or fake) to negotiate some kind of agreement with Iran that would have modified/ended its nuclear program.
Commentators on the left end of the political spectrum are divided about the US role in bringing the war about, about US goals in entering the war now that Israel has gained relative dominance in the military battle, and whether the US would take military action against Iran such that Iran would respond with attacks on US military bases and the 40,000 US troops throughout the region. Most commentators are predicting a long, not short, war, citing the unlikelihood of Iranian surrender.
It is clear that Israel's attack on Iran is illegal under international law. Though Israel tried at the UN Security Council to maintain that its attack was “self-defense,” a “preemptive attack to ward off a (sometime in the future) nuclear attack from Iran, these arguments are ridiculous. However, they are useful to those, such as the recent G-7 meeting in Canada, who wish to support Israel in its conflict with Iran.
As of 8 pm Wednesday evening, there is no decision from the White House about a new level of US military intervention into the war. Below I’ve linked some recent essays and videos/interviews that I hope illuminate the origins, background, and perils of this war.
THE ORIGINS/CONTEXT OF THE WAR
Dragging the United States into a war against Iran has been a goal of Netanyahu for several decades. We do not know just why he chose to launch the war now, rather than some other time. Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg told Democracy Now! on Monday that Netanyahu launched the war now to distract Israelis and the “international community” from his failure to win the Gaza war. Writing in The Intercept, another commentator argued that the purpose of the Israeli attack was to “blow up” the possibility that Trump and Iran would come to some kind of agreement in their negotiations around Iran’s nuclear program. Two other commentators, Ben Norton and Aaron Mate, argue that Trump’s nuclear negotiations were simply a fake, a ruse to lull Iran into unpreparedness while collaborating with Israel to attack.
Why Trump/the USA pivoted from an apparent attempt to avoid a war, or at least US involvement in the war, is a slightly different question. In Tuesday’s New York Times, some of the paper’s leading foreign affairs reporters wrote a lengthy article, “How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure from Israel.”
By the end of last month, American spy agencies monitoring Israel’s military activities and discussions among the country’s political leadership had come to a striking conclusion: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was planning for an imminent attack on Iran’s nuclear program, with or without the participation of the United States. …over the last several weeks, it became increasingly apparent to Trump administration officials that they might not be able to stop Mr. Netanyahu this time, according to interviews with key players in the administration’s deliberations over how to respond and others familiar with their thinking. At the same time, Mr. Trump was getting impatient with Iran over the slow pace of negotiations and beginning to conclude that the talks might go nowhere. Contrary to Israeli claims, senior administration officials were unaware of any new intelligence showing that the Iranians were rushing to build a nuclear bomb — a move that would justify a pre-emptive strike. But seeing they would most likely not be able to deter Mr. Netanyahu and were no longer driving events, Mr. Trump’s advisers weighed alternatives.
THE DANGERS OF RADIATION – BOMBING NUCLEAR SITES
The alleged purpose of Israel’s attack on Iran is to destroy Iran’s capacity to build a nuclear weapon, which in Israel’s eyes means destroying the infrastructure/built environment of Iran’s nuclear program. As I wrote in a Substack post 3 weeks ago, the initial stages of building a nuclear power protect are identical to building a nuclear weapon – enriching uranium to a 3% or a 95% level of the uranium isotope U235. Thus Israel has bombed several Iranian nuclear sites where uranium is being enriched by centrifuges, etc. A great unknown is what happens to partially enriched uranium that being bombed, escapes into the atmosphere, a war-time version of Chernobyl. Here are two useful short videos that address this week’s events in Iran:
IAEA says two centrifuge production facilities hit in Iran – June 18th
---- The International Atomic Energy Agency says that two Iranian centrifuge production facilities have been hit in Karaj and at the Tehran Research Center. Both sites were previously monitored and verified by the IAEA. Some of the equipment at Karaj was reportedly moved three years ago. [Link]
IAEA warns of possible contamination at Iran nuclear site after Israeli air strikes – June 16th
---- The head of the UN nuclear watchdog is warning of possible chemical contamination and radiation inside Iran's Natanz nuclear facility. The International Atomic Energy Agency is holding an urgent meeting in Vienna to discuss the matter. The watchdog says that possible radiation inside the underground facility can be controlled if properly managed. There's been several Israeli attacks on Natanz. The agency says there's no elevated radiation detected off-site. The IAEA's director general has called on both sides to lower tensions. [Link]
DOES/DID ISRAEL NEED HELP TO “WIN” THE WAR?
Many commentators observe that Israel, while clearly “winning” the missile/bombing war, was encountering more resistance from Iran that perhaps expected. Reporting from Israel included stories and pictures of serious damage in Tel Aviv and Haifa, and a frightened population. While both populations showed no hesitancy about “rallying around the flag,” leaders of both countries were/are very unpopular, and so patriotic responses were in spite of the war leaders and their governments.
Trita Parsi, who has written several important books about Iran and 25 years of nuclear negotiations (Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran, and the Triumph of Diplomacy) published a good article on Sunday, “Israel is not winning. Trump must not cave to new demands for help” [Link], He observed:
What now appears to be an escalating, inconclusive conflict with no clear end in sight will soon force Trump into a challenging decision: end the war — or enter it. … Israel faces two key challenges with this request. First, seeking America’s blessing to go to war is a far lighter ask than requesting America’s direct military involvement. Trump, unexpectedly, agreed to the former — but it would be exceptionally unwise for him to agree to the latter. Secondly, as noted earlier, Trump likes winners — and by asking him to intervene, Israel is signaling that it’s losing. … Why would Trump risk American lives, endanger his presidency, and join a war he didn’t start — just to rescue Israel from a failed and unprovoked conflict? Trump prefers to take credit for victories, not inherit blame for someone else’s potential fiasco.
Alas, this good advice did not reach President Trump, and so we ask:
CAN THIS WAR BE ENDED SOON?
On Tuesday President Trump proposed that Iran agree to “unconditional surrender,” a likely non-starter for Iran. But how else might this war end, now that Trump appears to have abandoned diplomacy for war, and while the “international community” believes that “only Trump” can end the war? Are we doomed to weeks and months of war/stalemate? As of 7 pm on Wednesday, Trump claims that he hasn’t “made up his mind.” Pure sadism. A useful thing to do is to call our elected Reps in Congress to demand they support the War Powers Resolutions introduced this week in the House and Senate. (Read about the House version
here and the Senate version here). Will Latimer, Schumer, and Gillibrand vote to say “No War!” Let’s find out. Call Rep. Latimer (202) 225-2464; Sen. Gillibrand (202) 224-4451; and Sen. Schumer (202) 224-6542.
Frank Brodhead
For CFOW
Extra Reading/Viewing
VIDEOS – THIS WEEK ON DEMOCRACY NOW! [Reverse chron order]
“A Moment of Immense Danger”: U.S. Inches Toward Direct Involvement in Israel’s War with Iran – June 18, 2025
---- “We’re at a moment of immense danger,” warns HuffPost correspondent Akbar Shahid Ahmed, as the Trump administration appears increasingly amenable to escalating conflict with Iran. Ahmed shares what we know about the U.S. military buildup and the “magical thinking” of regime change rhetoric among Washington, D.C., policymakers that could turn into a “hugely devastating” war with Iran. Above all, says Ahmed, Trump’s boasts about being an antiwar leader have not come true: “We haven’t seen him solve any of the wars that he said he would address.”[See the Program]
Tehran Professor Reports from Iran State TV Building Bombed by Israel as Trump Threatens Khamenei – June 18, 2025
---- Donald Trump has threatened to directly target Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and may be moving closer to ordering U.S. airstrikes on Iran. Meanwhile, Khamenei has rejected Trump’s calls for “unconditional surrender,” warning that Iran will meet any U.S. military action in Iran with “irreparable harm.” In Tehran, many civilians have already evacuated after multiple Israeli strikes killed hundreds. “There’s nothing sophisticated about slaughtering everyone in an apartment building to murder one or two people,” says Mohammad Marandi about the strikes. Marandi, who has remained in Tehran, was part of the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations in 2015. [See the Program]
Preemptive Strike or Act of War? Israel Attacked Iran Amid Sinking Global Support for Assault on Gaza - [June 17, 2025]
---- Israel is intensifying its war on Iran, bombing the headquarters of the country’s national TV network on Monday and assassinating another top military leader. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also suggested killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran has responded with barrages of long-range missiles targeting Israel. … We also speak with Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg, who says the war on Iran has allowed Israel’s establishment to “draw the world’s attention away from Gaza,” countering rising domestic and international criticism. “Netanyahu felt the global sentiment shifting … and because of that, he attacked Iran.” [See the Program]
Israel & Iran at War: Trump Is “Only World Leader Who Can Stop the Cycle of Escalation” – June 16, 2025
---- Fighting between Israel and Iran has entered a fourth day, after Israel launched a sweeping, unprovoked attack. Iran’s Health Ministry reports a total of 224 people have been killed, with 1,277 people hospitalized, by Israeli attacks. Iran has responded by launching a wave of missile attacks on Tel Aviv, Haifa and other Israeli cities, killing at least 24 people and injuring more than 500. We speak with Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, who says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “basically bombed away President Trump’s only possibility for a diplomatic win early on in his second term.” Vaez also argues President Trump is the only world leader with the ability to “stop this cycle of escalation from expanding into a much more disastrous regional conflagration.” Iranian-born Israeli political activist Orly Noy says Netanyau launched strikes on Iran to salvage his dwindling political popularity. The Israeli people are very susceptible to believing “the imaginary threats that Netanyahu uses,” says Noy. [See the Program]
VIDEOS THIS WEEK FROM ALJAZEERA
Israelis united in wanting Trump to join war against Iran: Gideon Levy – June 18, 2025
---- Israeli journalist Gideon Levy says there is a broad consensus in Israel in favour of the US getting more involved in the conflict with Iran. Levy also noted that it is widely accepted that Israel will not be able to destroy Iran’s Fordow nuclear site, which is buried deep underground, without the help of American bombs. [See the Program] – 6 minutes
What US interests are at stake in the Israel-Iran conflict? (“Inside Story”) – 28 minutes
The Israel-Iran conflict brings more instability to the Middle East, a region with extensive US interests. They'll be central to shaping president Donald Trump's strategy. So, what's at stake for Washington and the pros and cons for Trump of further involvement? (Presenters include Trita Parsi.) [See the Program]
SOME INTERESTING ARTICLES/ESSAYS
The Folly of A War With Iran
By Chris Hedges, Scheer Post [June 16, 2025]
---- The neoconservatives who orchestrated the disastrous wars with Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya — and who were never held accountable for the profligate waste of 8 trillion taxpayer dollars, as well as $69 billion squandered in Ukraine — look set to lure us into yet another military fiasco with Iran. Iran is not Iraq. Iran is not Afghanistan. Iran is not Lebanon. Iran is not Libya. Iran is not Syria. Iran is not Yemen. Iran is the seventeenth largest country in the world, with a land mass equivalent to the size of Western Europe. It has a population of almost 90 million — 10 times greater than Israel — and its military resources, as well as alliances with China and Russia, make it a formidable opponent. [Read More]
Israel’s Strikes on Iran Spark Growing Dissent in Congress
By Medea Benjamin, Code Pink [June 16, 2025]
---- On Monday, June 16, Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) introduced legislation, a War Powers Resolution, to prevent President Trump from using military force against Iran without Congressional authorization. This will force all Senators to go on record supporting or opposing the following: “Congress hereby directs the President to terminate the use of United States Armed Forces for hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran or any part of its government or military, unless explicitly authorized by a declaration of war or specific authorization for use of military force against Iran.” Sen. Kaine, a longtime advocate for exerting congressional authority over war, blasted Israel for jeopardizing planned U.S.-Iran diplomacy. [Read More]
The U.S. Must Force Israel to End Its War on Iran
By Phyllis Bennis and Khury Petersen-Smith, In These Times [June 16, 2025 ]
---- The specific role of the United States in the first hours and days of Israel’s war against Iran remains uncertain; we don’t yet know if U.S. forces were directly involved, and whether or how much the Israelis relied on U.S. intelligence or other immediate assistance in carrying out the assaults on Tehran and other cities across Iran. What we do know is that Israel has always been able to count on continuing U.S. backing — economic, political, diplomatic as well as military — whether or not any particular White House administration supported or disagreed with any particular military attack, and whether or not that support involved direct U.S. military participation. Beyond that, we can examine what we know about Israel’s (still-underway) attack on Iran, what we know about U.S.-Israeli relations and what may lie ahead. [Read More]
U.S. Intel Says Iran Isn’t a Nuclear Threat. Israel Wants the U.S. to Bomb It Anyway.
By Nick Turse, The Intercept [June 17, 2025]
---- According to the U.S. intelligence community, that threat is not real. “We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that [Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so,” reads the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, the intelligence community’s official evaluation of threats to U.S. citizens, “the Homeland,” and U.S. interests which was published in March. On Saturday, Susan Miller, the former CIA station chief in Israel who retired from the agency in 2024, told SpyTalk that current officials maintained that assessment. [Read More]
