If you are uncertain what’s happening in the US/Israel-Iran War, you are not alone. While negotiations continue via intermediaries between the US and Iran, messaging from the Trump White House wanders between “a deal is at hand” and “we may have to blow them up.” The incoherence of Trump’s messaging is amplified by our mainstream media. Needless to say, the confusion may be the point.
Iran has maintained its negotiating position, expressed in its “14-Point Proposal” and elsewhere, that the warring parties must first agree on ending the war and opening the Strait of Hormuz, and then move on to discussing Iran’s nuclear program. This seems to be where negotiations have been heading, but yesterday the US attacked Iran’s naval headquarters in southern Iran, calling into question whether the US wanted a ceasefire or a renewal of the fighting. Interviews with Iranians have frequently mentioned the “lack of trust” inspired by the US military attacks, last June and again this February, during negotiations that were described as “going well.” That is, Iran has no incentive to make concessions about issues such as its nuclear program if the US will not first commit to ending the fighting.
Many other issues, such as the dissent from US Republican “War Hawks” and the announced escalation of Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, also cloud the prospects for a ceasefire and productive negotiations on the remaining issues. BELOW I’ve linked several useful videos from yesterday and today from experts who have been following the war closely. They too see no coherence or stability in Trump’s decision making about ending the war, but they offer a useful guide to which are the important factors tending towards more war or possible peace.
(Video) U.S. Bombs Iran Despite Peace Talks; Israel Strikes Lebanon to “Force Trump’s Hand”
From Democracy Now! [May 26, 2026]
---- We get an update on the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran from journalist Negar Mortazavi, following the Pentagon’s so-called self-defense strikes on two Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz Monday despite an official ceasefire and ongoing peace negotiations. The “chaotic” ceasefire “has been violated from day one,” says Mortazavi, who notes that Israel’s continuous attacks on southern Lebanon are delaying attempts to end the war — and that this is exactly the intention of the Israeli government. “Clearly, Netanyahu doesn’t want this war with Iran to end,” she says. “Every step of escalation is definitely going to harm the final outcome and narrow the path to a final agreement.” Mortazavi also comments on the new political reality for Iran’s Gulf neighbors in the aftermath of Iranian strikes on U.S. military bases hosted in the region. “The Iranian message is: If war comes to us, it will not stay inside our borders.” [See the Program]
(Video) U.S.-Iran Negotiations in the Balance, Israel Escalates Attacks Against Gaza and Lebanon – With Jeremy Scahill
From Drop Site News [May 26, 2026] – 32 minutes
---- Iran on Tuesday denounced U.S. strikes a day earlier as a sign of “bad faith and unreliability” as negotiations for a framework for a deal to end the war hang in the balance. The U.S. military confirmed that it had struck vessels near the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas on Monday in what called “self-defense strikes.” … A senior Iranian official told Drop Site on Friday that Tehran had put forward a set of terms as a framework for a deal, including the provisional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—contingent on an end to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets, and a plan to compensate Iran for damages incurred in the war. The official also stated that the Iranian framework would require an agreement to permanently end the war first, followed by immediate negotiations to reach a deal over the nuclear program. [See the Program]
(Video) Trump Blows Up His Own Ceasefire Deal with Iran!
From The Left Hook [May 25, 2026] with Trita Parsi and Waiahat Ali – 35 minutes
----Donald Trump, a master of “the art of the deal,” has now torpedoed his own fragile ceasefire negotiations by demanding Muslim majority countries normalize relations with Israel. What could go wrong? … The problem with having a temperamental, sun downing President who makes decisions based on flattery, grievances, and vibes is that he’s chaotic and unpredictable. For example, on Friday night, the world was prepared for the invasion of Cuba and an escalation of the failed war in Iran. By Saturday, there were leaks of a potential ceasefire deal. On Sunday, right-wing hawks in DC clamored for more war. And on Memorial Day, the President went ahead and torpedoed his own alleged ceasefire deal by insulting his allies with an absurd and untenable demand. [See the Program] The Listening Post 12
(Video) Trump’s war loop: Escalate, retreat, repeat
From Aljazeera (“The Listening Post”) [May 25, 2026] – 12 minutes
---- Stuck in a quagmire of a war, Trump chafes at negative coverage while Iran digs its heels in. For decades, much of the United States media adopted Washington’s framing of US conflicts in the Middle East. But the US-Israel war against Iran is defying that trend. US news outlets are increasingly challenging President Donald Trump on his declarations of victory and absence of a clear strategy. Meanwhile, Iran’s military remains operational, Tehran retains control of the Strait of Hormuz and fears are mounting that the disruption to global energy supplies will drag on. [See the Program]
