It might have been Mark Twain who said, “War is God’s way of teaching Americans about geography.” Or it might have been US satirist Ambrose Bierce. Or someone else. But this certainly applies to me – and perhaps to some readers as well. In any case, the war against Iran has expanded to include several additional countries this week, and this may not be the end of the expansion. Get out your map.
For those just tuning in – the unprovoked attack by the US and Israel on Iran on February 28th was followed by intense fighting, and then by a ceasefire that came into effect on April 8th. Negotiated by intermediators Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, and others, the ceasefire was based on a 14-point plan whose first step was an end to the fighting, including Israel’s invasion of Lebanon. Negotiations that followed were to make progress on the other points of the “Memorandum of Understanding” (MoU), but they broke down via the dispute between the US and Iran over Point 5 of the MoU. which outlined how transit through the Strait of Hormuz would be handled during the 60-day period set aside for negotiations. In the last week or so, Trump has said that the ceasefire was at an end, but serious fighting had not resumed until yesterday.
In writing about the war, I have followed the lead of those analysts who have concluded that the US has essentially lost the war, that Trump has painted himself into a corner, where neither escalation nor surrender is an option, especially in light of the looming US congressional elections in November. Moreover, the world economic chaos caused by the defacto closing of the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers has generated an economic crisis that will soon grow worse. That is, freezing the conflict is also not an option; although the main burden of the closure of the Strait has fallen on countries of the Global South, the spike in fuel, grocery, and other prices in the US has motivated a strong opposition to the war, with some 70 percent of those polled saying “the war is not worth it” or something similar.
There are several reasons why escalation does not provide an escape route for Trump. One reason is that the Pentagon confronts a munitions crisis. Last Sunday’s CFOW newsletter linked a New York Times article article titled “Trump Holds Off on Major Escalation Against Iran as Advisers Raise Concern.” A leading concern is that the US is running out of Patriot missiles and other expansive things that can’t be produced overnight, and a portion of which must remain in reserve in case another war (!) breaks out. Naturally the Trump people dispute this, but the problem seems real. For more on this, read “Iran Has Figured Out How to Overwhelm U.S. Air Defenses” from The Intercept.
An Expanding War
Suddenly the war now spreads to Iraq and to Saudi Arabia and to the Red Sea; and Ukraine just struck an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian Sea. Each of these regions is unstable and capable of generating further conflicts. Yesterday Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Ukrainian Prime Minister Zelensky; and we have yet to see what new plans have been laid that might expand the war on Iran even more. I hope to report on this in Sunday’s CFOW newsletter. BELOW are brief summaries of the war’s expansion to-date.
CLOSURE OF THE RED SEA – OIL BLOCKADE ON SAUDI ARABIA
In addition to the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea – bordering the western edge of Saudi Arabia – has been the alternative route (via pipeline connection) to ship oil from Saudi oil fields on the eastern edge of their country (bordered by the Persian Gulf). On the southern border of Saudi Arabia lies Yemen, engulfed in a complicated civil war for many years. The dominant power in the capital of Yemen is what we call “the Houthis,” an Islamic group loosely aligned with Iran. After a long ceasefire, the Houthis responded to a Saudi missile attack by threatening to attack any Saudi ships attempting to exit the southern end of the Red Sea. Blockaded by the Iranians at the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis at the southern end of the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia cannot export significant amounts of oil. This will contribute to the world economic crisis.
WILL UKRAINE GET INTO THE WAR ON IRAN?
Last Saturday, July 25, Ukrainian drones stuck an Iranian cargo ship, bound for Russia, in the Caspian Sea. (Iran borders the southern edge of the Sea.) One Iranian sailor was killed and several injured. Iran threatened retaliation, but Ukraine told the Iranians that the strike was unintentional. Merging the wars in Ukraine and Iran into single conflict may have been avoided; but Ukraine’s Zelensky visited Trump yesterday and we do not know what will happen next. Trita Parsi, an expert on all things Iran, posted this assessment/warning on his Substack yesterday:
Zelensky’s dangerous gambit to merge the Iran and Ukraine Wars
---- As Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky arrives in Washington, much indicates that he is no longer merely trying to draw greater American support into its war against Russia. Increasingly, it appears to be pursuing something far more consequential: merging the Ukraine war with the U.S.-Iran conflict into a single strategic theater. The distinction matters. If the two wars become one, Ukraine ceases to be merely a recipient of American military assistance and instead becomes a direct participant in Washington’s war with Tehran. By the same token, the United States would no longer simply be Ukraine’s principal arms supplier. It would become an active belligerent against Russia through a conflict that stretches from the Black Sea to the Caspian. [Read More]
SAUDI ARABIA STRIKES PRO-IRAN MILITIAS IN IRAQ
As many older readers will recall, Iraq is a predominately Shi’ite nation, and the US war on Iraq left about half of the Iraq armed forces in the form of “pro-Iran” militias. According to this report from today’s Drop Site News,
“Joint U.S.-Saudi airstrikes killed at least 20 of its fighters and wounded 32 others in attacks across seven provinces, in one of the biggest escalations in the region in weeks. The PMF, an Iraqi state-integrated paramilitary body with factions close to Tehran, said the strikes hit its positions in Baghdad, Wasit, Nineveh, Basra, Kirkuk, Karbala, and Diyala, damaging buildings, vehicles, and equipment. U.S. Central Command and Saudi Arabia confirmed the joint operation, saying it targeted “Iran-backed” militants in retaliation for attacks on U.S. troops and Saudi oil facilities, with CENTCOM saying it hit “logistics and weapons sites across eastern Iraq.” Trump claimed the overnight strikes were carried out in coordination with the Iraqi government.”
However, the Iraq militias denied having attacked Saudi Arabian oil sites, and the Houthis are claiming credit for the strikes. The main outcome of the US-Saudi attack, however, may be in the demands of an angry pro-Iranian military force – again, constituting about half of Iraq’s armed forces – that the Iraq government must take responsibility for failing to protect them from this attack, which the US claims was made in cooperation with the Iraqi government. And so collateral damage on this episode may be that US forces stationed in Iraq may become targets not only for Iranians, but for Iraqis as well.
WHAT ABOUT GLOUCESTSHIRE, UK; IS IT IN DANGER?
Is any place safe from this war? Last week, according to an interesting article in Counterpunch, “Iran’s official news agency, declared that any military base used to launch attacks on Iran would be considered a “legitimate target”. It specifically named the Fairford UK air base, claiming American B-1 bombers had flown missions against Iran from there.” And the article goes on to say that “following the Iranian warning, ministers said the UK’s armed forces stood ready to defend the country and any military installations under threat. Whether Fairford is genuinely at risk is almost beside the point.” And then the article goes on to describe anti-Iranian hysteria in the UK around a fear of Iranian refugees and small boats bringing terror to its shores. [Read More]
THAT’S ENOUGH EXCITEMENT FOR ONE POST
Yesterday, Iran launched a missile attack (5 missiles says the US) against US military sites in Jordan. From Drop Site News: “In a statement confirming the attacks, the IRGC said that the attacks targeted Muwaffaq Salti Air Base and the headquarters of the U.S. military’s Central Command in Jordan and warned that they would continue as long as U.S. threats and actions against Iranian interests persist.” President Trump was very angry about this on Fox today (“expletives”!!), and promised to hit Iran hard tonight. For the man painted into a corner, No Exit This Way.
Frank Brodhead
For CFOW
