On Friday the US and Iran are due to (officially) sign a “Memorandum of Understanding” that constitutes the first phase of negotiations that aim to end the war. As of this writing, the MOU remains secret, but a purported draft of the MOU was published today by CNN. Among its 14 points, the first calls for an end to all fighting, including in Lebanon. Other points detail how the Strait of Hormuz will be opened to traffic and other important details. The “official” signing of the MOU begins a 60-day ceasefire and negotiations regarding other points in the MOU, including the status of Iran’s nuclear program, release of Iran’s “frozen assets,” and much more. The MOU also notes that only the issues enumerated among the 14 points will be part of the negotiations during the 60-day period; so, for example, the status of Iran’s ballistic missile program cannot become part of the negotiations.
Last Monday, June 15, immediately after Trump and Iran announced that the MOU had been agreed upon (but still secret), Jeremy Scahill told Democracy Now! what had led to final agreement, and what obstacles remained that might disrupt the 60-day period of further negotiations. He singled out the problem of Israeli cooperation – would Netanyahu attempt to sabotage the negotiations by further attacks on Lebanon, as he did last Sunday?
From Democracy Now! – June 15, 2026
“Will Israel Blow Up Trump’s Deal? Jeremy Scahill on Iran Talks, Strait of Hormuz, Nukes & More”
---- More than 100 days into hostilities, Iran and the United States say they have reached a preliminary deal to end the war. Israel, however, is not a party to the tentative deal and says it plans to keep occupying areas of southern Lebanon — a position still contested by Iran and the key sticking point to the partial ceasefire deal agreed to by the U.S. and Iran in April. Although the new agreement is set to be signed Friday, Israel’s unrelenting assault on Lebanon could once again spoil any deal. “This is going to become the center of whether any actual agreement takes place,” says Drop Site News’s Jeremy Scahill, who joins Democracy Now! to break down what we know about this latest round of diplomacy. Scahill, who has spoken extensively to Iranian officials about the negotiations, says it remains to be seen if Iran can successfully “decouple” the U.S.-Israeli alliance from Israel’s expansionary front in Lebanon, or whether it has relinquished too much of its own “strategic leverage” by agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. [See the Program]
So what Israel does next, and what Trump and Iran can/will do to coerce Israel to end its intervention in Lebanon and its occupation of a broad swath of southern Lebanon, are key to the possibility of a peace agreement for the reason. As Israeli commentator Ori Goldberg explained in a Democracy Now! segment this morning, the internal politics of Israel suggest that Netanyahu will be under intense pressure to continue the war against Lebanon and Iran, and to sabotage the peace negotiations if possible.
So the question quickly becomes, if Israel continues its war/occupation in Lebanon, will Trump take strong steps to coerce Israel to cooperate? Tools available to Trump include freezing financial support to Israel, a blockade of further arms shipments, an end to protecting Israel at the UN (with the US veto) and other international forums, further sanctions of Israeli political leaders, etc. Given Israel’s stakes in preventing an end to the wars against Iran and Lebanon, I believe defiance – at least in the short term – is likely.
Yesterday, in response to continued fighting in Lebanon, Iran threatened to resume military attacks on Israel. What then would Israel do, and what would Trump do? Iran could also say that Israel’s continued war in Lebanon is in violation of (what may be) Article #1 of the MOU, and thus further negotiations with the US will be put on pause until the US coerces its “ally” into obedience with the terms of the MOU. Much depends on Trump, and thus the US antiwar movement/activists have a role to play.
Here is Israeli commentator Ori Goldberg on Democracy Now! Today.
“Has Trump Had Enough of Netanyahu? Israel Defies U.S., Vows to Continue War in Lebanon”
---- The United States and Iran are set to formally sign an agreement Friday to end military hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin negotiations on a long-term peace accord between the two countries. ... Israel has vowed to ignore the U.S.-Iran agreement and maintain its occupation of southern Lebanon, with many Israeli leaders and commentators expressing outrage about the apparent terms of the deal for being too conciliatory to Iran. President Trump, meanwhile, has expressed criticism of Israel’s actions in Lebanon. “Trump’s had enough,” says Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg, speaking to Democracy Now! from Tel Aviv. “He hasn’t had enough because he cares about the Palestinians or about Lebanon. He’s had enough of Netanyahu’s disrespect. He’s had enough of the notion that it’s actually Netanyahu who’s calling the shots.” [See the Program
The horror of the situation in Lebanon should not be understated. Since its founding in 1948, Israeli politicians have aspired to dominate, and in many cases to include within Israel, Lebanon south of the Litani River. Which is from 4 to 17 miles north of the border with Israel. Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982, where it remained until 2000. It also launched a short war against Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006. Israel’s language these days stresses its desire to create a “buffer zone” from which Lebanese people are removed from the vicinity of towns in northern Israel. Lylla Younes, a Lebanese reporter for Drop Site news who often appears on Democracy Now!, illustrated in a recent report -- “You Either Leave Right Now or You Die” - the cruelty and savagery of Israel’s “cleansing” operation in southern Lebanon. Her views are elaborated in the Drop Site News program linked below:
(Video) The State of War and Diplomacy: Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza – Tuesday, June 16th
—— The United States and Iran reached an initial agreement early Monday to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and open the Strait of Hormuz. The text of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) has not been released, but Iran has publicly indicated that the deal includes a permanent cessation of military operations across all fronts, including Lebanon specifically. The signing of the agreement is set for Friday in Switzerland, with U.S. Vice President JD Vance saying he plans to attend and leaving open the possibility President Donald Trump could as well. In the first 24 hours after the MOU was formally announced, the Israeli military carried out drone strikes, artillery fire, ground incursion attempts, and road demolitions across south Lebanon, killing at least three civilians and wounding several others. Despite this, thousands of displaced Lebanese have begun making their way south looking to return to their homes. Drop Site’s Ryan Grim, Jeremy Scahill, Murtaza Hussain, and Sharif Abdel Kouddous discuss the MOU between the U.S. and Iran, its geopolitical implications, how Lebanon is a pivotal part of the deal, and why Palestine is not specifically named in the agreement [See the Program]
As should be clear to all those perplexed (including me), there are so many balls in the air, and so much depends on the momentary impulses people such as Trump and Netanyahu, that there is no firm ground on which to make predictions regarding what happens Friday, or beyond. I hope that our clamor for peace, and our efforts at critical thinking, can continue and be helpful.
Frank Brodhead
For CFOW
