CFOW Emergency Update
April 16, 2017
Hello All – We may look back on this warm Easter Sunday as a moment of calm before the storm. Needless to say, the danger of war breaking out in Korea is very high. What can we do?
There are many things we don't know. We don't know if North Korea attempted yesterday's missile launch over the strong objections of China. We don't know what the response of the United States would have been if the launch had succeeded. What don't know about communications presumably going on between the United States and China, China and North Korea, and perhaps even the United States and North Korea. We don't know if the across-the-board opposition of leading South Korean politicians to US military action against North Korea has any impact. We don't know if North Korea's stated intention to go ahead with another (underground) nuclear weapon test is going forward, and we don't know if the US has any contingency plans to "preempt" the test by military action, or to respond with military action after such a test has been done.
We can assume – or at least hope – that the Trump team would not initiate a war with North Korea while Vice President Pence is in Seoul, South Korea.
The long-term problem for the United States in thinking about military action against North Korea is that much of the country's governing infrastructure and military facilities is underground; and it is likely that the United States doesn't have a complete map of where things are. Because much of North Korea's artillery is near the border with South Korea, and within easy shooting distance of the 10 million people – and US bases with thousands of US soldiers – in the area.
This military-hostage standoff has been compounded in recent years with North Korea's development of missiles that could reach Japan and US bases in Okinawa. Thus a "first strike" by the United States against North Korea would have to have a high certainty of destroying almost everything that could shoot back – or risk a retaliatory strike from North Korea that might kill many thousands of people. – In other words, it seems to me that much of the war will be done/not done in the first hour.
The path towards a peaceful resolution of the US-North Korea standoff over the latter's nuclear program has always been open and clear. It was successfully initiated in the 1990s, with North Korea dismantling or freezing the bulk of its nuclear program in exchange for economic assistance and a promise from the United States that it would not attack. The economic assistance part of this pact lapsed after President Bush was inaugurated in 1991; and after unsuccessful efforts by North Korea to persuade the United States to resume aid, they started up their nuclear program again. Needless to say, the "Axis of Evil" speech by President Bush didn't help; and to my knowledge the Obama administration relied on economic sanctions, rather than renewed negotiations, to attempt to force North Korea to end its nuclear and missile programs. The same strategy has been the stated aim of the Trump administration, now interrupted by this New Course.
What to Do
At this point, citizen protest will be only a tiny voice in the cataract of war noise. Still, we must do what we can. One thing we can do is to call our elected representatives and demand that they speak out against war with North Korea, and pursue negotiations instead. Here are their phone numbers:
Senator Charles Schumer: 212-486-4430
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: 212-688-6262
Congresswoman Nita Lowey: 914-428-1707
Congressman Eliot Engel: 718-796-9700
A second thing that we can do is come to an antiwar rally tomorrow, Monday, at noon, in White Plains. The rally is at the fountain at Renaissance Plaza, at the intersection of Main St. and Mamaroneck Ave. This is part of the weekly "Justice Monday" organized by the Westchester Social Justice Coalition. By chance, tomorrow is CFOW's turn to lead the rally, with a focus on the military budget and the threat of war. Please try to attend. A big rally, a good turnout, will be a sign that, at least in Westchester, people oppose the war danger brought on by the reckless actions of President Trump.
I linked below two pieces of good/useful reading about the Korea crisis. Some of you may have seen these articles before, but so far they are the most useful that I know of.
A newsletter will be coming along one of these days, but that's it for this weekend.
Best wishes,
Frank Brodhead
For CFOW
SOME GOOD/USEFUL READING ON KOREA
This Is What's Really Behind North Korea's Nuclear Provocations
By Bruce Cumings, The Nation [March 23, 2017]
---- North Korea is the only country in the world to have been systematically blackmailed by US nuclear weapons going back to the 1950s, when hundreds of nukes were installed in South Korea. … Why on earth would Pyongyang not seek a nuclear deterrent? But this crucial background doesn't enter mainstream American discourse. History doesn't matter, until it does—when it rears up and smacks you in the face. [Read More]
U.S. may launch strike if North Korea reaches for nuclear trigger
---- The U.S. is prepared to launch a preemptive strike with conventional weapons against North Korea should officials become convinced that North Korea is about to follow through with a nuclear weapons test, multiple senior U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News. North Korea has warned that a "big event" is near, and U.S. officials say signs point to a nuclear test that could come as early as this weekend. The intelligence officials told NBC News that the U.S. has positioned two destroyers capable of shooting Tomahawk cruise missiles in the region, one just 300 miles from the North Korean nuclear test site. [Read More]
